In-depth Q&A: How will the UK’s hydrogen strategy help achieve net-zero?

Company decisions around the extent of hydrogen use in domestic heating and how to ensure it is produced in a low-carbon method have been postponed or put out to assessment for the time being.

Hydrogen will be “critical” for attaining the UKs net-zero target and might consume to a third of the countrys energy by 2050, according to the government.

The UKs new, long-awaited hydrogen strategy supplies more information on how the government will support the advancement of a domestic low-carbon hydrogen sector, which today is practically non-existent.

In this short article, Carbon Brief highlights essential points from the 121-page strategy and takes a look at a few of the main talking points around the UKs hydrogen strategies.

Experts have warned that, with hydrogen in brief supply in the coming years, the UK must prioritise it in “hard-to-electrify” sectors such as heavy industry as capacity expands.

Why does the UK need a hydrogen strategy?

There were likewise over 100 recommendations to hydrogen throughout the governments energy white paper, reflecting its potential use in many sectors. It likewise features in the commercial and transportation decarbonisation methods launched previously this year.

Hydrogen growth for the next decade is expected to start slowly, with a federal government goal to “see 1GW production capability by 2025” set out in the strategy.

Prior to the new strategy, the prime ministers 10-point strategy in November 2020 included plans to produce five gigawatts (GW) of yearly low-carbon hydrogen production in the UK by 2030. Currently, this capability stands at practically absolutely no.

The file consists of an exploration of how the UK will broaden production and create a market for hydrogen based upon domestic supply chains. This contrasts with Germany, which has been seeking to import hydrogen from abroad.

Critics likewise characterise hydrogen– the majority of which is currently made from gas– as a way for fossil fuel business to keep the status quo. (For all the advantages and drawbacks of hydrogen, see Carbon Briefs thorough explainer.).

The technique does not increase this target, although it notes that the government is “familiar with a possible pipeline of over 15GW of projects”.

Companies such as Equinor are pressing on with hydrogen advancements in the UK, but market figures have actually warned that the UK dangers being left behind. Other European nations have promised billions to support low-carbon hydrogen growth.

As with many of the federal governments net-zero technique documents so far, the hydrogen strategy has actually been postponed by months, resulting in uncertainty around the future of this fledgling market.

Today we have actually published the UKs very first Hydrogen Strategy! This is our plan to: kick-start a whole industry let loose the marketplace to cut expenses increase domestic production unlock ₤ 4bn of personal capital assistance 9k tasks #BuildBackGreenerhttps:// t.co/ aHZTr5yYeR– Kwasi Kwarteng (@KwasiKwarteng) August 17, 2021.

Hydrogen is widely viewed as a vital component in plans to accomplish net-zero emissions and has been the topic of significant buzz, with many countries prioritising it in their post-Covid green recovery plans.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has actually kept in mind that, in order to hit the UKs carbon spending plans and accomplish net-zero emissions, decisions in areas such as decarbonising heating and lorries need to be made in the 2020s to permit time for facilities and car stock changes.

In some applications, hydrogen will take on electrification and carbon capture and storage (CCS) as the very best ways of decarbonisation.

A current All Party Parliamentary Group report on the role of hydrogen in powering industry included a list of needs, specifying that the federal government should “broaden beyond its existing commitments of 5GW production in the forthcoming hydrogen method”. This call has actually been echoed by some market groups.

The strategy likewise called for a ₤ 240m net-zero hydrogen fund, the development of a hydrogen neighbourhood heated with the gas by 2023, and increasing hydrogen blending into gas networks to 20% to minimize dependence on natural gas.

In its new strategy, the UK federal government makes it clear that it sees low-carbon hydrogen as a key part of its net-zero plan, and states it desires the nation to be a “global leader on hydrogen” by 2030.

As the chart listed below shows, if the governments strategies come to fulfillment it could then broaden considerably– taking up between 20-35% of the countrys overall energy supply by 2050. This will require a major expansion of infrastructure and skills in the UK.

Hydrogen demand (pink location) and proportion of final energy consumption in 2050 (%). The central range is based on illustrative net-zero consistent scenarios in the sixth carbon budget plan effect assessment and the complete range is based upon the whole variety from hydrogen strategy analytical annex. Source: UK hydrogen method.

Its flexibility indicates it can be used to deal with emissions in “hard-to-abate” sectors, such as heavy market, however it currently suffers from high rates and low efficiency..

What range of low-carbon hydrogen will be prioritised?

The federal government has actually launched a consultation on low-carbon hydrogen standards to accompany the strategy, with a pledge to “settle design components” of such requirements by early 2022.

Comparison of cost quotes throughout different innovation types at main fuel rates commissioning from 2020 to 2050, ₤/ MWh hydrogen. Source: Hydrogen Production Costs.
2021.

Environmental groups and lots of scientists are sceptical about blue hydrogen provided its associated emissions.

The CCC has actually formerly defined “appropriate emissions reductions” for blue hydrogen compared to fossil gas as “at least 95% CO2 capture, 85% lifecycle greenhouse gas cost savings”.

This opposition came to a head when a recent study caused headings stating that blue hydrogen is “worse for the climate than coal”.

The technique specifies that the proportion of hydrogen provided by particular technologies “depends upon a series of assumptions, which can just be tested through the markets response to the policies set out in this technique and genuine, at-scale implementation of hydrogen”..

Brief (hopefully) showing on this blue hydrogen thing. Essentially, the papers calculations possibly represent a case where blue H ₂ is done actually terribly & & without any reasonable policies. And then cherry-picked an environment metric to make it look as bad as possible. https://t.co/Jx0FdDfdx5— David Joffe (@david_joffe) August 13, 2021.

The previous is essentially zero-carbon, however the latter can still lead to emissions due to methane leakages from gas facilities and the fact that carbon capture and storage (CCS) does not record 100% of emissions..

Supporting a range of projects will give the UK a “competitive benefit”, according to the government. Germany, by contrast, has stated it will focus solely on green hydrogen.

Glossary.

It has actually likewise launched an accompanying report, prepared by consultancies E4Tech and Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (LBST), which examines maximum acceptable levels of emissions for low-carbon hydrogen production and the methodology for computing these emissions.

In May, S&P Global Platts reported that Rita Wadey– hydrogen economy deputy director at the Department for Business, Energy & & Industrial Strategy (BEIS)– said that, instead of “blue” or “green”, the UK would “think about carbon intensity as the primary consider market development”.

The brand-new technique mainly prevents using this colour-coding system, however it says the government has actually dedicated to a “twin track” technique that will consist of the production of both ranges.

” If we desire to show, trial, begin to commercialise and after that present using hydrogen in industry/air travel/freight or anywhere, then we require enough hydrogen. We cant wait till the supply side considerations are complete.”.

The figure listed below from the assessment, based on this analysis, shows the impact of setting a threshold of 15-20gCO2e per megajoule (MJ) of hydrogen (red bar). In this example, those production techniques above the red line, including some for producing blue hydrogen, would be left out.

The CCC has previously stated that the federal government must “set out [a] vision for contributions of hydrogen production from various routes to 2035” in its hydrogen strategy.

The CCC has warned that policies should establish both green and blue options, “rather than simply whichever is least-cost”.

As it stands, blue hydrogen used steam methane reformation (SMR) is the most affordable low-carbon hydrogen readily available, according to federal government analysis consisted of in the method. (For more on the relative costs of different hydrogen ranges, see this Carbon Brief explainer.).

CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be expressed in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO2eq. For an offered quantity, various greenhouse gases trap different amounts of heat in the environment, a quantity understood as the worldwide warming potential. Co2 equivalent is a method of comparing emissions from all greenhouse gases, not simply carbon dioxide.

The plan notes that, in many cases, hydrogen used electrolysers “might become cost-competitive with CCUS [carbon utilisation, capture and storage] -enabled methane reformation as early as 2025”..

Prof Robert Gross, director of the UK Energy Research Centre, tells Carbon Brief that, in his view, it is “most likely a bit unhelpful to get too preoccupied with the green vs blue hydrogen dispute”. He says:.

The document does refrain from doing that and instead says it will offer “additional information on our production strategy and twin track approach by early 2022”.

The chart below, from a file outlining hydrogen expenses launched together with the primary method, shows the anticipated declining cost of electrolytic hydrogen gradually (green lines). (This consists of hydrogen made using grid electrical energy, which is not technically green unless the grid is 100% renewable.).

In the example chosen for the assessment, natural gas routes where CO2 capture rates are below around 85% were omitted..

At the heart of numerous conversations about low-carbon hydrogen production is whether the hydrogen is “green” or “blue”.

Green hydrogen is made using electrolysers powered by sustainable electricity, while blue hydrogen is made utilizing natural gas, with the resulting emissions captured and saved..

Nevertheless, there was substantial pushback on this conclusion, with other researchers– including CCC head of carbon budget plans, David Joffe– pointing out that it relied on very high methane leakage and a short-term procedure of worldwide warming capacity that stressed the impact of methane emissions over CO2.

Jess Ralston, an expert at thinktank the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said in a declaration that the federal government ought to “live to the risk of gas market lobbying triggering it to devote too heavily to blue hydrogen and so keeping the country locked into fossil fuel-based innovation”.

For its part, the CCC has suggested a “blue hydrogen bridge” as a helpful tool for accomplishing net-zero. It says allowing some blue hydrogen will minimize emissions quicker in the short-term by replacing more fossil fuels with hydrogen when there is insufficient green hydrogen available..

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CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be expressed in regards to co2 equivalent, or CO2eq. For a given quantity, different greenhouse gases trap various quantities of heat in the atmosphere, an amount called … Read More.

How will hydrogen be utilized in different sectors of the economy?

The federal government is more positive about the usage of hydrogen in domestic heating. Its analysis recommends that approximately 45TWh of low-carbon hydrogen might be put to this use by 2035, as the chart below shows.

It consists of plans for hydrogen heating trials and assessment on “hydrogen-ready” boilers by 2026.

Call for evidence on “hydrogen-ready” commercial devices by the end of 2021. Require proof on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in industry “within a year”. Stage 2 of the ₤ 315m Industrial Energy Transformation Fund.A ₤ 55 million Industrial Fuel Switching 2 competitors in 2021.

One notable exclusion is hydrogen for fuel-cell automobile. This follows the governments focus on electrical automobiles, which many scientists deem more cost-effective and effective innovation.

Protection of the report and federal government advertising products emphasised that the governments strategy would supply sufficient hydrogen to change natural gas in around 3m houses each year.

The method likewise consists of the alternative of using hydrogen in sectors that might be better served by electrification, especially domestic heating, where hydrogen has to contend with electrical heat pumps..

Illustrative hydrogen demand in 2030 (blue) and 2035 (purple). Source: UK hydrogen strategy.

The CCC does not see comprehensive use of hydrogen outside of these restricted cases by 2035, as the chart listed below programs.

Federal government analysis, consisted of in the method, recommends prospective hydrogen demand of as much as 38 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, not including mixing it into the gas grid, and rising to 55-165TWh by 2035.

Michael Liebrich of Liebreich Associates has actually organised using low-carbon hydrogen into a “ladder”, with present applications– such as the chemicals industry– given leading priority.

However, in the real report, the government said that it anticipated “overall the need for low carbon hydrogen for heating by 2030 to be fairly low (<< 1TWh)".. Some applications, such as commercial heating, might be practically difficult without a supply of hydrogen, and lots of professionals have actually argued that these hold true where it ought to be prioritised, at least in the short term. The committee stresses that hydrogen use need to be limited to "areas less fit to electrification, particularly shipping and parts of industry" and providing versatility to the power system. Although low-carbon hydrogen can be utilized to do whatever from sustaining cars and trucks to heating houses, the reality is that it will likely be limited by the volume that can probably be produced. Juliet Phillips, senior policy consultant and UK hydrogen expert at thinktank E3G tells Carbon Brief the method had actually "left open" the door for usages that "do not add the most value for the environment or economy". She includes:. Dedications made in the brand-new strategy include:. Reacting to the report, energy scientists indicated the "small" volumes of hydrogen anticipated to be produced in the future and urged the government to select its priorities thoroughly. The new technique is clear that market will be a "lead alternative" for early hydrogen use, beginning in the mid-2020s. It also says that it will "likely" be necessary for decarbonising transport-- especially heavy goods lorries, shipping and aviation-- and stabilizing a more renewables-heavy grid. My lovelies, I simply dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! For anyone brand-new to all this, the ladder is my attempt to put use cases for tidy hydrogen into some sort of merit order, since not all use cases are equally likely to succeed. 1/10 pic.twitter.com/I8HpqQjlKS— Michael Liebreich (@MLiebreich) August 15, 2021. This is in line with the CCCs suggestion for its net-zero path, which sees low-carbon hydrogen scaling as much as 90TWh by 2035-- around a 3rd of the size of the existing power sector. The starting point for the variety-- 0TWh-- recommends there is significant unpredictability compared to other sectors, and even the greatest quote is only around a 10th of the energy currently utilized to heat UK houses. " Stronger signals of intent might guide public and personal financial investments into those locations which include most worth. The federal government has actually not plainly laid out how to decide upon which sectors will take advantage of the preliminary scheduled 5GW of production and has instead mainly left this to be figured out through trials and pilots.". " As the method admits, there will not be significant quantities of low-carbon hydrogen for some time. [For that reason] we require to utilize it where there are few alternatives and not as a like-for-like replacement of gas," Dr Jan Rosenow, director of European programs at the Regulatory Assistance Project, in a declaration. 4) On page 62 the hydrogen strategy states that the government expects << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. 1 TWh is 0.2%. Lastly, in order to create a market for hydrogen, the federal government says it will examine blending as much as 20% hydrogen into the gas network by late 2022 and goal to make a decision in late 2023. " I would recommend to go with these no-regret choices for hydrogen need [in market] that are currently offered ... those must be the focus.". Much will depend upon the progress of expediency research studies in the coming years, and the federal governments approaching heat and structures technique may also provide some clarity. Gniewomir Flis, a job manager at Agora Energiewende, informs Carbon Brief that-- in his view-- mixing "has no future". He explains:. How does the federal government strategy to support the hydrogen market? " This will offer us a better understanding of the mix of production innovations, how we will fulfill a ramp-up in need, and the role that new innovations might play in attaining the levels of production required to meet our future [6th carbon budget plan] and net-zero dedications.". Now that its strategy has actually been released, the government states it will collect proof from consultations on its low-carbon hydrogen requirement, net-zero hydrogen fund and business model:. Sharelines from this story. The 10-point strategy included a promise to establish a hydrogen company design to encourage personal financial investment and a revenue mechanism to provide financing for business model. Hydrogen need (pink area) and percentage of last energy intake in 2050 (%). My lovelies, I simply dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! Call for proof on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in market "within a year"." As the method admits, there wont be significant amounts of low-carbon hydrogen for some time. 4) On page 62 the hydrogen technique specifies that the government anticipates << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. According to the governments news release, its favored model is "developed on a similar premise to the overseas wind agreements for difference (CfDs)", which considerably cut expenses of brand-new offshore wind farms. The brand-new hydrogen strategy verifies that this business design will be settled in 2022, allowing the very first agreements to be allocated from the start of 2023. This is pending another assessment, which has been released together with the primary strategy. As it stands, low-carbon hydrogen stays costly compared to fossil fuel alternatives, there is unpredictability about the level of future need and high dangers for companies intending to enter the sector. Anne-Marie Trevelyan-- minister for energy, tidy development and environment change at BEIS-- informed the Times that the cost to offer long-lasting security to the market would be "very small" for private families. Much of the resulting press protection of the hydrogen strategy, from the Financial Times to the Daily Telegraph, concentrated on the prepare for a hydrogen market "subsidised by taxpayers", as the money would come from either higher costs or public funds. These contracts are designed to conquer the cost gap between the favored innovation and fossil fuels. Hydrogen manufacturers would be offered a payment that bridges this gap.