In-depth Q&A: How will the UK’s hydrogen strategy help achieve net-zero?
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In this post, Carbon Brief highlights crucial points from the 121-page strategy and examines a few of the primary talking points around the UKs hydrogen plans.
Specialists have cautioned that, with hydrogen in brief supply in the coming years, the UK needs to prioritise it in “hard-to-electrify” sectors such as heavy market as capacity expands.
Hydrogen will be “important” for achieving the UKs net-zero target and could meet up to a third of the countrys energy requirements by 2050, according to the government.
The UKs brand-new, long-awaited hydrogen method supplies more detail on how the government will support the development of a domestic low-carbon hydrogen sector, which today is practically non-existent.
Why does the UK need a hydrogen method?
Today we have actually released the UKs very first Hydrogen Strategy! This is our plan to: kick-start an entire industry unleash the marketplace to cut costs ramp up domestic production unlock ₤ 4bn of personal capital assistance 9k tasks #BuildBackGreenerhttps:// t.co/ aHZTr5yYeR– Kwasi Kwarteng (@KwasiKwarteng) August 17, 2021.
However, as the chart below shows, if the federal governments strategies pertain to fruition it could then broaden substantially– making up between 20-35% of the countrys overall energy supply by 2050. This will need a major growth of facilities and skills in the UK.
There were also over 100 referrals to hydrogen throughout the federal governments energy white paper, showing its prospective use in many sectors. It likewise includes in the industrial and transportation decarbonisation techniques released previously this year.
In its new technique, the UK federal government makes it clear that it sees low-carbon hydrogen as a crucial part of its net-zero plan, and says it wants the nation to be a “international leader on hydrogen” by 2030.
Nevertheless, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has kept in mind that, in order to strike the UKs carbon budget plans and accomplish net-zero emissions, decisions in areas such as decarbonising heating and vehicles need to be made in the 2020s to permit time for facilities and vehicle stock changes.
Critics also characterise hydrogen– the majority of which is currently made from gas– as a way for fossil fuel business to maintain the status quo. (For all the advantages and disadvantages of hydrogen, see Carbon Briefs in-depth explainer.).
Prior to the new method, the prime ministers 10-point plan in November 2020 included strategies to produce 5 gigawatts (GW) of annual low-carbon hydrogen production capacity in the UK by 2030. Currently, this capacity stands at practically absolutely no.
Hydrogen is extensively viewed as an important element in plans to accomplish net-zero emissions and has actually been the subject of considerable buzz, with many countries prioritising it in their post-Covid green recovery strategies.
The level of hydrogen use in 2050 envisaged by the technique is rather greater than set out by the CCC in its most recent advice, however covers a similar range to other studies.
A recent All Party Parliamentary Group report on the function of hydrogen in powering market consisted of a list of needs, mentioning that the federal government must “expand beyond its existing commitments of 5GW production in the forthcoming hydrogen technique”. This call has been echoed by some industry groups.
In some applications, hydrogen will take on electrification and carbon capture and storage (CCS) as the best methods of decarbonisation.
As with most of the governments net-zero method documents so far, the hydrogen strategy has been postponed by months, resulting in uncertainty around the future of this new industry.
The method does not increase this target, although it keeps in mind that the government is “familiar with a prospective pipeline of over 15GW of projects”.
The file consists of an expedition of how the UK will broaden production and create a market for hydrogen based on domestic supply chains. This contrasts with Germany, which has been wanting to import hydrogen from abroad.
Hydrogen development for the next decade is anticipated to start gradually, with a government aspiration to “see 1GW production capability by 2025” laid out in the technique.
Its adaptability means it can be used to take on emissions in “hard-to-abate” sectors, such as heavy market, however it presently suffers from high rates and low effectiveness..
The strategy also called for a ₤ 240m net-zero hydrogen fund, the creation of a hydrogen neighbourhood warmed with the gas by 2023, and increasing hydrogen blending into gas networks to 20% to lower dependence on gas.
Companies such as Equinor are pressing on with hydrogen advancements in the UK, but industry figures have actually warned that the UK risks being left. Other European countries have pledged billions to support low-carbon hydrogen growth.
Hydrogen demand (pink area) and proportion of final energy intake in 2050 (%). The central range is based upon illustrative net-zero consistent situations in the sixth carbon spending plan impact evaluation and the full variety is based on the entire range from hydrogen strategy analytical annex. Source: UK hydrogen method.
What range of low-carbon hydrogen will be prioritised?
Jess Ralston, an analyst at thinktank the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said in a statement that the federal government ought to “live to the danger of gas industry lobbying causing it to dedicate too heavily to blue hydrogen therefore keeping the country locked into fossil fuel-based technology”.
” If we wish to demonstrate, trial, begin to commercialise and after that roll out the use of hydrogen in industry/air travel/freight or wherever, then we require enough hydrogen. We cant wait till the supply side deliberations are total.”.
Green hydrogen is used electrolysers powered by renewable electrical energy, while blue hydrogen is used gas, with the resulting emissions captured and saved..
For its part, the CCC has suggested a “blue hydrogen bridge” as a helpful tool for achieving net-zero. It states enabling some blue hydrogen will decrease emissions much faster in the short-term by replacing more fossil fuels with hydrogen when there is not adequate green hydrogen available..
The CCC has actually previously defined “suitable emissions reductions” for blue hydrogen compared to fossil gas as “at least 95% CO2 capture, 85% lifecycle greenhouse gas savings”.
In the example picked for the consultation, gas routes where CO2 capture rates are below around 85% were excluded..
The strategy notes that, in some cases, hydrogen made utilizing electrolysers “could become cost-competitive with CCUS [carbon storage, utilisation and capture] -allowed methane reformation as early as 2025”..
This opposition came to a head when a recent research study led to headlines specifying that blue hydrogen is “worse for the climate than coal”.
The figure listed below from the assessment, based on this analysis, shows the effect of setting a limit of 15-20gCO2e per megajoule (MJ) of hydrogen (red bar). In this example, those production methods above the red line, consisting of some for producing blue hydrogen, would be omitted.
The strategy states that the proportion of hydrogen supplied by particular innovations “depends upon a variety of assumptions, which can just be checked through the markets reaction to the policies set out in this strategy and genuine, at-scale release of hydrogen”..
Glossary.
Supporting a range of projects will give the UK a “competitive advantage”, according to the federal government. Germany, by contrast, has said it will focus exclusively on green hydrogen.
CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be revealed in terms of co2 equivalent, or CO2eq. For a given quantity, different greenhouse gases trap various amounts of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity known as the international warming capacity. Co2 equivalent is a way of comparing emissions from all greenhouse gases, not simply carbon dioxide.
Comparison of price quotes across different technology types at main fuel rates commissioning from 2020 to 2050, ₤/ MWh hydrogen. Source: Hydrogen Production Costs.
2021.
The government has actually released an assessment on low-carbon hydrogen requirements to accompany the technique, with a promise to “finalise design elements” of such standards by early 2022.
The brand-new technique mostly prevents utilizing this colour-coding system, but it says the government has actually devoted to a “twin track” technique that will include the production of both varieties.
However, there was considerable pushback on this conclusion, with other scientists– consisting of CCC head of carbon budget plans, David Joffe– pointing out that it counted on extremely high methane leak and a short-term procedure of worldwide warming capacity that emphasised the effect of methane emissions over CO2.
It has actually likewise released an accompanying report, prepared by consultancies E4Tech and Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (LBST), which analyzes maximum acceptable levels of emissions for low-carbon hydrogen production and the methodology for calculating these emissions.
Brief (hopefully) showing on this blue hydrogen thing. And then cherry-picked an environment metric to make it look as bad as possible.
The CCC has actually warned that policies must develop both blue and green options, “rather than simply whichever is least-cost”.
Many scientists and environmental groups are sceptical about blue hydrogen provided its associated emissions.
In May, S&P Global Platts reported that Rita Wadey– hydrogen economy deputy director at the Department for Business, Energy & & Industrial Strategy (BEIS)– said that, rather than “blue” or “green”, the UK would “consider carbon strength as the main factor in market development”.
The chart below, from a file outlining hydrogen expenses released together with the main strategy, shows the expected declining cost of electrolytic hydrogen gradually (green lines). (This consists of hydrogen used grid electricity, which is not technically green unless the grid is 100% sustainable.).
The CCC has actually formerly specified that the government should “set out [a] vision for contributions of hydrogen production from various routes to 2035” in its hydrogen strategy.
Close.
CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be expressed in regards to carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO2eq. For a provided quantity, different greenhouse gases trap various quantities of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity referred to as … Read More.
The previous is essentially zero-carbon, but the latter can still lead to emissions due to methane leaks from gas infrastructure and the truth that carbon capture and storage (CCS) does not capture 100% of emissions..
As it stands, blue hydrogen made utilizing steam methane reformation (SMR) is the most affordable low-carbon hydrogen offered, according to government analysis included in the method. (For more on the relative expenses of various hydrogen ranges, see this Carbon Brief explainer.).
The file does not do that and rather says it will supply “more detail on our production technique and twin track method by early 2022”.
Prof Robert Gross, director of the UK Energy Research Centre, informs Carbon Brief that, in his view, it is “most likely a bit unhelpful to get too preoccupied with the blue vs green hydrogen argument”. He says:.
At the heart of numerous discussions about low-carbon hydrogen production is whether the hydrogen is “green” or “blue”.
How will hydrogen be utilized in various sectors of the economy?
It contains prepare for hydrogen heating trials and consultation on “hydrogen-ready” boilers by 2026.
This remains in line with the CCCs suggestion for its net-zero path, which sees low-carbon hydrogen scaling approximately 90TWh by 2035– around a 3rd of the size of the present power sector.
Federal government analysis, included in the technique, suggests potential hydrogen demand of approximately 38 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, not consisting of blending it into the gas grid, and rising to 55-165TWh by 2035.
The committee stresses that hydrogen use must be restricted to “areas less matched to electrification, especially shipping and parts of market” and offering versatility to the power system.
One significant exemption is hydrogen for fuel-cell automobile. This follows the federal governments concentrate on electric cars and trucks, which numerous scientists deem more cost-effective and efficient innovation.
The government is more optimistic about making use of hydrogen in domestic heating. Its analysis recommends that up to 45TWh of low-carbon hydrogen might be put to this usage by 2035, as the chart below indicates.
Require evidence on “hydrogen-ready” industrial devices by the end of 2021. Call for proof on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in market “within a year”. Phase 2 of the ₤ 315m Industrial Energy Transformation Fund.A ₤ 55 million Industrial Fuel Switching 2 competitors in 2021.
Some applications, such as commercial heating, might be virtually impossible without a supply of hydrogen, and many professionals have actually argued that these are the cases where it must be prioritised, a minimum of in the brief term.
Michael Liebrich of Liebreich Associates has organised using low-carbon hydrogen into a “ladder”, with existing applications– such as the chemicals market– given leading concern.
Nevertheless, the starting point for the variety– 0TWh– recommends there is considerable unpredictability compared to other sectors, and even the highest price quote is only around a 10th of the energy currently utilized to heat UK houses.
The brand-new method is clear that market will be a “lead alternative” for early hydrogen usage, beginning in the mid-2020s. It likewise says that it will “likely” be very important for decarbonising transport– especially heavy items lorries, shipping and air travel– and balancing a more renewables-heavy grid.
However, in the real report, the government stated that it anticipated “in general the need for low carbon hydrogen for heating by 2030 to be reasonably low (<< 1TWh)".. Juliet Phillips, senior policy advisor and UK hydrogen professional at thinktank E3G informs Carbon Brief the method had "left open" the door for uses that "do not add the most value for the climate or economy". She includes:. The method also includes the option of utilizing hydrogen in sectors that might be much better served by electrification, particularly domestic heating, where hydrogen has to complete with electric heat pumps.. " As the technique confesses, there wont be significant quantities of low-carbon hydrogen for some time. The CCC does not see substantial use of hydrogen outside of these restricted cases by 2035, as the chart below programs. Commitments made in the new method include:. My lovelies, I just dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! For anybody new to all this, the ladder is my effort to put usage cases for clean hydrogen into some sort of merit order, due to the fact that not all usage cases are equally likely to succeed. 1/10 pic.twitter.com/I8HpqQjlKS— Michael Liebreich (@MLiebreich) August 15, 2021. Although low-carbon hydrogen can be used to do everything from fuelling vehicles to heating homes, the truth is that it will likely be limited by the volume that can probably be produced. Illustrative hydrogen need in 2030 (blue) and 2035 (purple). Source: UK hydrogen technique. Protection of the report and government advertising products emphasised that the governments strategy would supply sufficient hydrogen to change natural gas in around 3m houses each year. Reacting to the report, energy scientists pointed to the "miniscule" volumes of hydrogen expected to be produced in the near future and prompted the government to select its priorities carefully. " Stronger signals of intent could steer public and private financial investments into those locations which include most value. The federal government has not plainly laid out how to pick which sectors will benefit from the preliminary planned 5GW of production and has rather mainly left this to be determined through pilots and trials.". 4) On page 62 the hydrogen method states that the government anticipates << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. 1 TWh is 0.2%. " I would recommend to opt for these no-regret choices for hydrogen demand [in industry] that are currently offered ... those must be the focus.". Much will depend upon the development of feasibility studies in the coming years, and the governments upcoming heat and buildings technique might also offer some clearness. In order to produce a market for hydrogen, the government states it will examine mixing up to 20% hydrogen into the gas network by late 2022 and aim to make a last decision in late 2023. Gniewomir Flis, a job supervisor at Agora Energiewende, informs Carbon Brief that-- in his view-- mixing "has no future". He discusses:. How does the government plan to support the hydrogen market? The 10-point strategy included a promise to establish a hydrogen organization model to encourage personal investment and an income mechanism to offer funding for the organization design. Sharelines from this story. " This will give us a much better understanding of the mix of production innovations, how we will fulfill a ramp-up in demand, and the function that new innovations might play in accomplishing the levels of production needed to satisfy our future [6th carbon spending plan] and net-zero dedications.". Hydrogen need (pink location) and proportion of last energy consumption in 2050 (%). My lovelies, I simply dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! Call for evidence on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in market "within a year"." As the method admits, there will not be substantial amounts of low-carbon hydrogen for some time. 4) On page 62 the hydrogen technique mentions that the government expects << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. According to the governments news release, its favored design is "developed on a similar premise to the overseas wind agreements for difference (CfDs)", which significantly cut expenses of new overseas wind farms. The new hydrogen technique validates that this service model will be settled in 2022, making it possible for the first agreements to be allocated from the start of 2023. This is pending another assessment, which has actually been introduced together with the main method. As it stands, low-carbon hydrogen stays expensive compared to fossil fuel options, there is uncertainty about the level of future demand and high risks for companies aiming to get in the sector. Much of the resulting press coverage of the hydrogen method, from the Financial Times to the Daily Telegraph, concentrated on the prepare for a hydrogen market "subsidised by taxpayers", as the cash would come from either greater expenses or public funds. These agreements are designed to overcome the cost space between the favored innovation and fossil fuels. Hydrogen manufacturers would be offered a payment that bridges this gap. Anne-Marie Trevelyan-- minister for energy, tidy growth and environment change at BEIS-- told the Times that the cost to supply long-lasting security to the industry would be "extremely small" for specific homes. Now that its method has been released, the government states it will gather evidence from consultations on its low-carbon hydrogen requirement, net-zero hydrogen fund and business model:.