Hydrogen will be “important” for accomplishing the UKs net-zero target and might satisfy up to a third of the countrys energy requirements by 2050, according to the government.
Experts have cautioned that, with hydrogen in short supply in the coming years, the UK should prioritise it in “hard-to-electrify” sectors such as heavy market as capability expands.
The UKs new, long-awaited hydrogen method provides more detail on how the government will support the development of a domestic low-carbon hydrogen sector, which today is virtually non-existent.
In this post, Carbon Brief highlights bottom lines from the 121-page method and takes a look at some of the main talking points around the UKs hydrogen plans.
Firm choices around the extent of hydrogen use in domestic heating and how to ensure it is produced in a low-carbon way have actually been postponed or put out to consultation for the time being.
Why does the UK require a hydrogen method?
The file contains an exploration of how the UK will expand production and develop a market for hydrogen based on domestic supply chains. This contrasts with Germany, which has actually been wanting to import hydrogen from abroad.
Its adaptability implies it can be utilized to tackle emissions in “hard-to-abate” sectors, such as heavy industry, however it presently experiences high prices and low effectiveness..
Hydrogen is widely seen as a vital component in strategies to accomplish net-zero emissions and has been the subject of substantial hype, with numerous nations prioritising it in their post-Covid green recovery plans.
A current All Party Parliamentary Group report on the function of hydrogen in powering industry consisted of a list of demands, mentioning that the government needs to “expand beyond its existing dedications of 5GW production in the forthcoming hydrogen strategy”. This call has been echoed by some industry groups.
The level of hydrogen use in 2050 imagined by the strategy is rather greater than set out by the CCC in its latest recommendations, but covers a comparable range to other research studies.
In its brand-new method, the UK federal government makes it clear that it sees low-carbon hydrogen as a crucial part of its net-zero plan, and says it desires the country to be a “international leader on hydrogen” by 2030.
As the chart listed below shows, if the governments plans come to fulfillment it might then expand significantly– making up in between 20-35% of the nations total energy supply by 2050. This will require a significant growth of infrastructure and abilities in the UK.
Hydrogen growth for the next decade is anticipated to start slowly, with a federal government aspiration to “see 1GW production capacity by 2025” laid out in the technique.
Today we have actually released the UKs very first Hydrogen Strategy! This is our plan to: kick-start a whole market unleash the market to cut expenses increase domestic production unlock ₤ 4bn of personal capital support 9k tasks #BuildBackGreenerhttps:// t.co/ aHZTr5yYeR– Kwasi Kwarteng (@KwasiKwarteng) August 17, 2021.
Critics likewise characterise hydrogen– most of which is presently made from gas– as a method for nonrenewable fuel source business to keep the status quo. (For all the advantages and downsides of hydrogen, see Carbon Briefs extensive explainer.).
In some applications, hydrogen will take on electrification and carbon capture and storage (CCS) as the finest means of decarbonisation.
Hydrogen need (pink area) and percentage of last energy consumption in 2050 (%). The central variety is based upon illustrative net-zero constant circumstances in the sixth carbon spending plan impact evaluation and the full range is based upon the entire variety from hydrogen technique analytical annex. Source: UK hydrogen strategy.
However, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has kept in mind that, in order to strike the UKs carbon budget plans and achieve net-zero emissions, decisions in locations such as decarbonising heating and automobiles require to be made in the 2020s to allow time for facilities and vehicle stock modifications.
There were also over 100 referrals to hydrogen throughout the federal governments energy white paper, reflecting its possible use in numerous sectors. It also features in the commercial and transport decarbonisation methods launched previously this year.
As with most of the governments net-zero method files so far, the hydrogen plan has actually been postponed by months, resulting in unpredictability around the future of this fledgling industry.
The plan also required a ₤ 240m net-zero hydrogen fund, the creation of a hydrogen area warmed with the gas by 2023, and increasing hydrogen mixing into gas networks to 20% to lower dependence on gas.
Prior to the new method, the prime ministers 10-point plan in November 2020 included plans to produce 5 gigawatts (GW) of annual low-carbon hydrogen production capacity in the UK by 2030. Presently, this capacity stands at practically zero.
The technique does not increase this target, although it keeps in mind that the federal government is “familiar with a prospective pipeline of over 15GW of jobs”.
Companies such as Equinor are continuing with hydrogen developments in the UK, but industry figures have alerted that the UK risks being left. Other European countries have pledged billions to support low-carbon hydrogen growth.
What variety of low-carbon hydrogen will be prioritised?
The plan notes that, in some cases, hydrogen used electrolysers “could end up being cost-competitive with CCUS [carbon capture, utilisation and storage] -made it possible for methane reformation as early as 2025”..
The file does refrain from doing that and instead says it will supply “more detail on our production method and twin track technique by early 2022”.
Green hydrogen is used electrolysers powered by eco-friendly electrical power, while blue hydrogen is made utilizing natural gas, with the resulting emissions recorded and stored..
Glossary.
Brief (hopefully) reflecting on this blue hydrogen thing. And then cherry-picked a climate metric to make it look as bad as possible.
The CCC has formerly mentioned that the government must “set out [a] vision for contributions of hydrogen production from different paths to 2035” in its hydrogen method.
The former is basically zero-carbon, however the latter can still result in emissions due to methane leakages from natural gas facilities and the truth that carbon capture and storage (CCS) does not record 100% of emissions..
There was significant pushback on this conclusion, with other researchers– consisting of CCC head of carbon budgets, David Joffe– pointing out that it relied on extremely high methane leakage and a short-term procedure of worldwide warming potential that emphasised the effect of methane emissions over CO2.
In the example selected for the assessment, natural gas routes where CO2 capture rates are below around 85% were excluded..
CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be expressed in regards to carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO2eq. For a given quantity, various greenhouse gases trap various quantities of heat in the environment, an amount called the global warming capacity. Carbon dioxide equivalent is a way of comparing emissions from all greenhouse gases, not simply carbon dioxide.
This opposition capped when a current study caused headings stating that blue hydrogen is “even worse for the climate than coal”.
Many scientists and ecological groups are sceptical about blue hydrogen provided its associated emissions.
The CCC has actually alerted that policies must establish both blue and green choices, “instead of simply whichever is least-cost”.
The government has actually launched an assessment on low-carbon hydrogen standards to accompany the technique, with a pledge to “settle style elements” of such standards by early 2022.
Prof Robert Gross, director of the UK Energy Research Centre, tells Carbon Brief that, in his view, it is “probably a bit unhelpful to get too preoccupied with the blue vs green hydrogen dispute”. He states:.
” If we wish to demonstrate, trial, start to commercialise and then roll out using hydrogen in industry/air travel/freight or wherever, then we require enough hydrogen. We cant wait till the supply side deliberations are total.”.
Supporting a range of projects will offer the UK a “competitive benefit”, according to the government. Germany, by contrast, has said it will focus exclusively on green hydrogen.
At the heart of numerous conversations about low-carbon hydrogen production is whether the hydrogen is “green” or “blue”.
Close.
CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be revealed in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO2eq. For an offered amount, various greenhouse gases trap different quantities of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity called … Read More.
The chart below, from a document outlining hydrogen expenses launched together with the primary technique, reveals the anticipated decreasing expense of electrolytic hydrogen gradually (green lines). (This includes hydrogen used grid electrical power, which is not technically green unless the grid is 100% sustainable.).
Jess Ralston, an analyst at thinktank the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said in a statement that the government need to “be alive to the danger of gas industry lobbying causing it to dedicate too greatly to blue hydrogen therefore keeping the country locked into fossil fuel-based technology”.
Comparison of rate estimates throughout various technology types at central fuel costs commissioning from 2020 to 2050, ₤/ MWh hydrogen. Source: Hydrogen Production Costs.
2021.
The CCC has actually formerly specified “suitable emissions reductions” for blue hydrogen compared to fossil gas as “a minimum of 95% CO2 capture, 85% lifecycle greenhouse gas savings”.
The figure below from the consultation, based upon this analysis, reveals the effect of setting a threshold of 15-20gCO2e per megajoule (MJ) of hydrogen (red bar). In this example, those production techniques above the red line, consisting of some for producing blue hydrogen, would be excluded.
For its part, the CCC has recommended a “blue hydrogen bridge” as a helpful tool for achieving net-zero. It states permitting some blue hydrogen will lower emissions much faster in the short-term by replacing more fossil fuels with hydrogen when there is insufficient green hydrogen readily available..
In May, S&P Global Platts reported that Rita Wadey– hydrogen economy deputy director at the Department for Business, Energy & & Industrial Strategy (BEIS)– stated that, instead of “blue” or “green”, the UK would “think about carbon strength as the main aspect in market development”.
The method mentions that the proportion of hydrogen provided by particular technologies “depends upon a variety of presumptions, which can just be evaluated through the marketplaces response to the policies set out in this method and genuine, at-scale release of hydrogen”..
As it stands, blue hydrogen made using steam methane reformation (SMR) is the cheapest low-carbon hydrogen offered, according to federal government analysis consisted of in the method. (For more on the relative costs of various hydrogen varieties, see this Carbon Brief explainer.).
It has actually likewise released an accompanying report, prepared by consultancies E4Tech and Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (LBST), which takes a look at maximum appropriate levels of emissions for low-carbon hydrogen production and the methodology for computing these emissions.
The brand-new method largely prevents utilizing this colour-coding system, but it says the federal government has actually committed to a “twin track” technique that will include the production of both varieties.
How will hydrogen be utilized in different sectors of the economy?
My lovelies, I just dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! For anybody brand-new to all this, the ladder is my effort to put usage cases for tidy hydrogen into some sort of benefit order, due to the fact that not all use cases are similarly likely to be successful. 1/10 pic.twitter.com/I8HpqQjlKS— Michael Liebreich (@MLiebreich) August 15, 2021.
Juliet Phillips, senior policy advisor and UK hydrogen specialist at thinktank E3G tells Carbon Brief the strategy had “left open” the door for usages that “do not include the most value for the environment or economy”. She includes:.
Michael Liebrich of Liebreich Associates has actually organised making use of low-carbon hydrogen into a “ladder”, with existing applications– such as the chemicals market– provided top priority.
Require evidence on “hydrogen-ready” commercial equipment by the end of 2021. Call for evidence on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in market “within a year”. Stage 2 of the ₤ 315m Industrial Energy Transformation Fund.A ₤ 55 million Industrial Fuel Switching 2 competitors in 2021.
” Stronger signals of intent could steer personal and public investments into those areas which add most value. The government has actually not clearly laid out how to decide upon which sectors will benefit from the initial planned 5GW of production and has instead mainly left this to be figured out through pilots and trials.”.
One noteworthy exemption is hydrogen for fuel-cell automobile. This is constant with the governments concentrate on electric automobiles, which lots of researchers deem more efficient and cost-effective innovation.
Illustrative hydrogen need in 2030 (blue) and 2035 (purple). Source: UK hydrogen strategy.
This is in line with the CCCs recommendation for its net-zero pathway, which sees low-carbon hydrogen scaling up to 90TWh by 2035– around a third of the size of the existing power sector.
Government analysis, consisted of in the method, recommends prospective hydrogen demand of as much as 38 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, not including mixing it into the gas grid, and increasing to 55-165TWh by 2035.
Some applications, such as industrial heating, may be essentially impossible without a supply of hydrogen, and lots of specialists have argued that these are the cases where it must be prioritised, a minimum of in the short term.
Nevertheless, the starting point for the variety– 0TWh– recommends there is substantial uncertainty compared to other sectors, and even the greatest quote is just around a 10th of the energy currently used to heat UK homes.
The federal government is more positive about making use of hydrogen in domestic heating. Its analysis recommends that up to 45TWh of low-carbon hydrogen might be put to this usage by 2035, as the chart listed below indicates.
It contains plans for hydrogen heating trials and consultation on “hydrogen-ready” boilers by 2026.
Dedications made in the new technique include:.
Protection of the report and government promotional products emphasised that the governments plan would offer adequate hydrogen to change natural gas in around 3m houses each year.
The committee stresses that hydrogen use should be restricted to “locations less matched to electrification, especially delivering and parts of industry” and providing flexibility to the power system.
The method likewise consists of the choice of utilizing hydrogen in sectors that might be better served by electrification, especially domestic heating, where hydrogen has to contend with electrical heat pumps..
Although low-carbon hydrogen can be utilized to do whatever from sustaining vehicles to heating houses, the reality is that it will likely be limited by the volume that can probably be produced.
Responding to the report, energy researchers indicated the “miniscule” volumes of hydrogen expected to be produced in the near future and prompted the federal government to choose its concerns thoroughly.
The new strategy is clear that market will be a “lead option” for early hydrogen usage, starting in the mid-2020s. It also states that it will “most likely” be very important for decarbonising transport– particularly heavy goods automobiles, shipping and aviation– and balancing a more renewables-heavy grid.
In the actual report, the federal government said that it anticipated “overall the demand for low carbon hydrogen for heating by 2030 to be fairly low (<< 1TWh)"..
" As the strategy admits, there wont be significant amounts of low-carbon hydrogen for some time.
The CCC does not see substantial usage of hydrogen beyond these minimal cases by 2035, as the chart listed below shows.
4) On page 62 the hydrogen strategy states that the government anticipates << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. 1 TWh is 0.2%.
Gniewomir Flis, a job manager at Agora Energiewende, tells Carbon Brief that-- in his view-- blending "has no future". He discusses:.
Finally, in order to create a market for hydrogen, the federal government states it will examine mixing up to 20% hydrogen into the gas network by late 2022 and objective to make a decision in late 2023.
" I would recommend to opt for these no-regret options for hydrogen demand [in market] that are already available ... those ought to be the focus.".
Much will depend upon the progress of expediency studies in the coming years, and the federal governments upcoming heat and buildings technique may likewise offer some clearness.
How does the government plan to support the hydrogen market?
Much of the resulting press protection of the hydrogen method, from the Financial Times to the Daily Telegraph, concentrated on the strategy for a hydrogen industry "subsidised by taxpayers", as the cash would come from either greater expenses or public funds.
As it stands, low-carbon hydrogen remains costly compared to fossil fuel alternatives, there is unpredictability about the level of future need and high risks for business aiming to get in the sector.
These agreements are created to conquer the expense space in between the favored technology and fossil fuels. Hydrogen producers would be provided a payment that bridges this gap.
According to the federal governments news release, its preferred design is "developed on a comparable premise to the offshore wind contracts for distinction (CfDs)", which substantially cut expenses of new overseas wind farms.
The brand-new hydrogen strategy validates that this business design will be finalised in 2022, making it possible for the first contracts to be allocated from the start of 2023. This is pending another assessment, which has actually been released alongside the primary method.
The 10-point plan included a pledge to establish a hydrogen company design to encourage personal financial investment and a profits mechanism to supply financing for business model.
Sharelines from this story.
Hydrogen need (pink area) and percentage of last energy intake in 2050 (%). My lovelies, I just dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! Call for proof on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in industry "within a year"." As the technique admits, there wont be considerable amounts of low-carbon hydrogen for some time. 4) On page 62 the hydrogen strategy mentions that the government anticipates << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030.
" This will offer us a much better understanding of the mix of production innovations, how we will satisfy a ramp-up in need, and the function that new technologies could play in accomplishing the levels of production required to meet our future [sixth carbon budget plan] and net-zero dedications.".
Anne-Marie Trevelyan-- minister for energy, tidy development and climate change at BEIS-- told the Times that the expense to offer long-lasting security to the industry would be "extremely small" for private homes.
Now that its technique has been published, the government says it will collect proof from assessments on its low-carbon hydrogen standard, net-zero hydrogen fund and business design:.
