In-depth Q&A: How will the UK’s hydrogen strategy help achieve net-zero?

In this short article, Carbon Brief highlights bottom lines from the 121-page method and analyzes a few of the main talking points around the UKs hydrogen strategies.

Hydrogen will be “critical” for accomplishing the UKs net-zero target and could fulfill up to a third of the countrys energy requirements by 2050, according to the federal government.

The UKs new, long-awaited hydrogen strategy supplies more information on how the government will support the development of a domestic low-carbon hydrogen sector, which today is practically non-existent.

Experts have warned that, with hydrogen in brief supply in the coming years, the UK must prioritise it in “hard-to-electrify” sectors such as heavy industry as capability expands.

On the other hand, firm decisions around the level of hydrogen use in domestic heating and how to ensure it is produced in a low-carbon way have been delayed or put out to consultation for the time being.

Why does the UK need a hydrogen technique?

There were likewise over 100 references to hydrogen throughout the federal governments energy white paper, showing its prospective usage in lots of sectors. It also features in the industrial and transportation decarbonisation strategies launched previously this year.

As the chart listed below shows, if the federal governments strategies come to fruition it could then broaden substantially– making up in between 20-35% of the nations overall energy supply by 2050. This will require a major expansion of infrastructure and abilities in the UK.

The level of hydrogen use in 2050 envisaged by the strategy is rather greater than set out by the CCC in its newest guidance, but covers a similar range to other studies.

The strategy also required a ₤ 240m net-zero hydrogen fund, the production of a hydrogen area warmed with the gas by 2023, and increasing hydrogen mixing into gas networks to 20% to lower reliance on gas.

As with most of the federal governments net-zero technique documents so far, the hydrogen strategy has actually been delayed by months, resulting in unpredictability around the future of this fledgling market.

The method does not increase this target, although it notes that the federal government is “familiar with a potential pipeline of over 15GW of jobs”.

Hydrogen is commonly viewed as an essential component in plans to accomplish net-zero emissions and has actually been the subject of considerable hype, with lots of countries prioritising it in their post-Covid green healing plans.

A recent All Party Parliamentary Group report on the function of hydrogen in powering market included a list of needs, mentioning that the government needs to “broaden beyond its existing dedications of 5GW production in the forthcoming hydrogen strategy”. This call has actually been echoed by some market groups.

Critics likewise characterise hydrogen– most of which is currently made from natural gas– as a way for fossil fuel business to maintain the status quo. (For all the advantages and drawbacks of hydrogen, see Carbon Briefs in-depth explainer.).

Hydrogen need (pink location) and percentage of final energy intake in 2050 (%). The main variety is based on illustrative net-zero constant circumstances in the 6th carbon budget plan impact evaluation and the full range is based upon the entire variety from hydrogen method analytical annex. Source: UK hydrogen technique.

Prior to the new technique, the prime ministers 10-point strategy in November 2020 included strategies to produce 5 gigawatts (GW) of yearly low-carbon hydrogen production capability in the UK by 2030. Currently, this capability stands at essentially absolutely no.

In its new strategy, the UK government makes it clear that it sees low-carbon hydrogen as an essential part of its net-zero plan, and says it wants the nation to be a “global leader on hydrogen” by 2030.

In some applications, hydrogen will take on electrification and carbon capture and storage (CCS) as the best means of decarbonisation.

Nevertheless, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has actually kept in mind that, in order to hit the UKs carbon budget plans and attain net-zero emissions, choices in areas such as decarbonising heating and cars need to be made in the 2020s to permit time for infrastructure and automobile stock modifications.

The file consists of an exploration of how the UK will expand production and create a market for hydrogen based on domestic supply chains. This contrasts with Germany, which has been wanting to import hydrogen from abroad.

Its adaptability indicates it can be utilized to deal with emissions in “hard-to-abate” sectors, such as heavy market, however it currently suffers from high rates and low efficiency..

Hydrogen development for the next years is expected to begin gradually, with a federal government aspiration to “see 1GW production capability by 2025” set out in the technique.

Today we have published the UKs very first Hydrogen Strategy! This is our plan to: kick-start an entire market let loose the market to cut expenses increase domestic production unlock ₤ 4bn of personal capital assistance 9k jobs #BuildBackGreenerhttps:// t.co/ aHZTr5yYeR– Kwasi Kwarteng (@KwasiKwarteng) August 17, 2021.

Companies such as Equinor are continuing with hydrogen advancements in the UK, however market figures have actually cautioned that the UK risks being left. Other European nations have vowed billions to support low-carbon hydrogen growth.

What range of low-carbon hydrogen will be prioritised?

The file does not do that and rather states it will provide “more detail on our production method and twin track technique by early 2022”.

Prof Robert Gross, director of the UK Energy Research Centre, tells Carbon Brief that, in his view, it is “most likely a bit unhelpful to get too preoccupied with the green vs blue hydrogen argument”. He says:.

The technique mentions that the percentage of hydrogen provided by specific innovations “depends on a range of presumptions, which can just be tested through the marketplaces response to the policies set out in this strategy and genuine, at-scale release of hydrogen”..

Glossary.

For its part, the CCC has actually suggested a “blue hydrogen bridge” as a helpful tool for attaining net-zero. It states allowing some blue hydrogen will minimize emissions faster in the short-term by replacing more fossil fuels with hydrogen when there is not enough green hydrogen offered..

The brand-new method mainly prevents using this colour-coding system, but it states the federal government has actually dedicated to a “twin track” technique that will include the production of both ranges.

Brief (ideally) reflecting on this blue hydrogen thing. And then cherry-picked an environment metric to make it look as bad as possible.

Comparison of rate estimates throughout various technology types at main fuel costs commissioning from 2020 to 2050, ₤/ MWh hydrogen. Source: Hydrogen Production Costs.
2021.

At the heart of many conversations about low-carbon hydrogen production is whether the hydrogen is “green” or “blue”.

In May, S&P Global Platts reported that Rita Wadey– hydrogen economy deputy director at the Department for Business, Energy & & Industrial Strategy (BEIS)– said that, rather than “blue” or “green”, the UK would “consider carbon strength as the primary aspect in market development”.

The plan keeps in mind that, in some cases, hydrogen made using electrolysers “could end up being cost-competitive with CCUS [carbon utilisation, storage and capture] -made it possible for methane reformation as early as 2025”..

The CCC has formerly specified that the government needs to “set out [a] vision for contributions of hydrogen production from various paths to 2035” in its hydrogen strategy.

CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be revealed in regards to co2 equivalent, or CO2eq. For a given quantity, different greenhouse gases trap various quantities of heat in the environment, an amount called the international warming capacity. Co2 equivalent is a method of comparing emissions from all greenhouse gases, not simply carbon dioxide.

This opposition came to a head when a current research study resulted in headlines specifying that blue hydrogen is “even worse for the environment than coal”.

Supporting a variety of tasks will provide the UK a “competitive benefit”, according to the government. Germany, by contrast, has said it will focus solely on green hydrogen.

Green hydrogen is made using electrolysers powered by renewable electrical power, while blue hydrogen is made utilizing natural gas, with the resulting emissions captured and saved..

The chart below, from a document laying out hydrogen costs launched along with the primary method, shows the anticipated declining cost of electrolytic hydrogen over time (green lines). (This includes hydrogen made using grid electricity, which is not technically green unless the grid is 100% eco-friendly.).

Nevertheless, there was considerable pushback on this conclusion, with other researchers– including CCC head of carbon budgets, David Joffe– mentioning that it relied on extremely high methane leak and a short-term step of global warming potential that stressed the effect of methane emissions over CO2.

The federal government has launched a consultation on low-carbon hydrogen requirements to accompany the technique, with a pledge to “settle style elements” of such requirements by early 2022.

The figure below from the consultation, based upon this analysis, reveals the effect of setting a threshold of 15-20gCO2e per megajoule (MJ) of hydrogen (red bar). In this example, those production methods above the red line, including some for producing blue hydrogen, would be left out.

In the example selected for the assessment, gas paths where CO2 capture rates are listed below around 85% were excluded..

Environmental groups and lots of researchers are sceptical about blue hydrogen provided its associated emissions.

The CCC has actually formerly defined “suitable emissions reductions” for blue hydrogen compared to fossil gas as “a minimum of 95% CO2 capture, 85% lifecycle greenhouse gas savings”.

The CCC has actually warned that policies should develop both green and blue options, “instead of just whichever is least-cost”.

It has also released an accompanying report, prepared by consultancies E4Tech and Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (LBST), which analyzes optimum appropriate levels of emissions for low-carbon hydrogen production and the approach for calculating these emissions.

Close.
CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be revealed in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO2eq. For an offered amount, various greenhouse gases trap different quantities of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity referred to as … Read More.

” If we desire to show, trial, start to commercialise and then roll out using hydrogen in industry/air travel/freight or wherever, then we need enough hydrogen. We cant wait till the supply side considerations are total.”.

As it stands, blue hydrogen used steam methane reformation (SMR) is the least expensive low-carbon hydrogen available, according to federal government analysis consisted of in the strategy. (For more on the relative expenses of various hydrogen ranges, see this Carbon Brief explainer.).

The previous is essentially zero-carbon, but the latter can still result in emissions due to methane leakages from natural gas infrastructure and the reality that carbon capture and storage (CCS) does not catch 100% of emissions..

Jess Ralston, an expert at thinktank the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said in a declaration that the federal government must “live to the risk of gas market lobbying triggering it to dedicate too greatly to blue hydrogen therefore keeping the country locked into fossil fuel-based innovation”.

How will hydrogen be utilized in different sectors of the economy?

Commitments made in the brand-new strategy include:.

The committee emphasises that hydrogen usage must be restricted to “areas less suited to electrification, particularly delivering and parts of industry” and supplying versatility to the power system.

Federal government analysis, included in the strategy, recommends prospective hydrogen need of up to 38 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, not including mixing it into the gas grid, and rising to 55-165TWh by 2035.

Reacting to the report, energy researchers pointed to the “small” volumes of hydrogen anticipated to be produced in the near future and urged the federal government to select its priorities carefully.

” Stronger signals of intent could guide private and public investments into those areas which include most worth. The federal government has actually not clearly laid out how to decide upon which sectors will gain from the preliminary scheduled 5GW of production and has instead largely left this to be figured out through trials and pilots.”.

The starting point for the variety– 0TWh– suggests there is considerable unpredictability compared to other sectors, and even the greatest estimate is just around a 10th of the energy presently used to heat UK homes.

Some applications, such as industrial heating, may be practically difficult without a supply of hydrogen, and numerous specialists have argued that these hold true where it should be prioritised, at least in the short term.

Low-carbon hydrogen can be utilized to do everything from fuelling vehicles to heating houses, the reality is that it will likely be limited by the volume that can feasibly be produced.

This is in line with the CCCs suggestion for its net-zero path, which sees low-carbon hydrogen scaling approximately 90TWh by 2035– around a third of the size of the existing power sector.

Protection of the report and government promotional materials stressed that the governments strategy would provide adequate hydrogen to replace gas in around 3m houses each year.

Call for proof on “hydrogen-ready” commercial devices by the end of 2021. Call for proof on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in market “within a year”. Phase 2 of the ₤ 315m Industrial Energy Transformation Fund.A ₤ 55 million Industrial Fuel Switching 2 competition in 2021.

It includes plans for hydrogen heating trials and assessment on “hydrogen-ready” boilers by 2026.

Michael Liebrich of Liebreich Associates has organised making use of low-carbon hydrogen into a “ladder”, with present applications– such as the chemicals industry– given leading priority.

The brand-new strategy is clear that market will be a “lead alternative” for early hydrogen usage, beginning in the mid-2020s. It likewise states that it will “most likely” be important for decarbonising transport– particularly heavy products lorries, shipping and air travel– and balancing a more renewables-heavy grid.

” As the strategy confesses, there wont be significant quantities of low-carbon hydrogen for some time.

So, my lovelies, I simply dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! For anybody new to all this, the ladder is my effort to put usage cases for clean hydrogen into some sort of benefit order, because not all use cases are similarly likely to prosper. 1/10 pic.twitter.com/I8HpqQjlKS— Michael Liebreich (@MLiebreich) August 15, 2021.

The federal government is more positive about using hydrogen in domestic heating. Its analysis recommends that up to 45TWh of low-carbon hydrogen could be put to this use by 2035, as the chart below indicates.

Juliet Phillips, senior policy consultant and UK hydrogen specialist at thinktank E3G informs Carbon Brief the strategy had actually “left open” the door for usages that “dont add the most worth for the environment or economy”. She includes:.

The technique also includes the alternative of using hydrogen in sectors that might be better served by electrification, especially domestic heating, where hydrogen has to compete with electrical heat pumps..

However, in the actual report, the federal government stated that it anticipated “in general the demand for low carbon hydrogen for heating by 2030 to be reasonably low (<< 1TWh)".. Illustrative hydrogen demand in 2030 (blue) and 2035 (purple). Source: UK hydrogen method. The CCC does not see substantial usage of hydrogen beyond these minimal cases by 2035, as the chart below shows. One notable exclusion is hydrogen for fuel-cell automobile. This follows the governments concentrate on electrical vehicles, which lots of researchers consider as more affordable and effective innovation. 4) On page 62 the hydrogen method specifies that the federal government expects << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. Present energy demand in the UK for space and warm water heating is 435 TWh according to Ofgem. So 1 TWh is 0.2%. Thats about 67,000 houses.-- Jan Rosenow (@janrosenow) August 17, 2021. In order to produce a market for hydrogen, the federal government says it will analyze mixing up to 20% hydrogen into the gas network by late 2022 and goal to make a final choice in late 2023. " I would recommend to choose these no-regret choices for hydrogen need [in market] that are currently readily available ... those ought to be the focus.". Gniewomir Flis, a job manager at Agora Energiewende, tells Carbon Brief that-- in his view-- mixing "has no future". He describes:. Much will hinge on the development of expediency studies in the coming years, and the federal governments approaching heat and buildings technique might also supply some clarity. How does the government strategy to support the hydrogen industry? These agreements are designed to overcome the cost space between the favored technology and fossil fuels. Hydrogen manufacturers would be provided a payment that bridges this gap. Sharelines from this story. The 10-point strategy consisted of a promise to establish a hydrogen organization design to encourage personal investment and a revenue system to provide financing for business design. Much of the resulting press protection of the hydrogen strategy, from the Financial Times to the Daily Telegraph, concentrated on the prepare for a hydrogen industry "subsidised by taxpayers", as the money would come from either greater costs or public funds. " This will provide us a much better understanding of the mix of production technologies, how we will satisfy a ramp-up in demand, and the role that brand-new technologies might play in achieving the levels of production essential to meet our future [sixth carbon budget plan] and net-zero dedications.". Hydrogen need (pink area) and percentage of final energy usage in 2050 (%). My lovelies, I simply dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! Call for evidence on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in market "within a year"." As the strategy confesses, there wont be significant amounts of low-carbon hydrogen for some time. 4) On page 62 the hydrogen technique states that the federal government expects << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. Anne-Marie Trevelyan-- minister for energy, clean growth and climate modification at BEIS-- told the Times that the expense to provide long-term security to the industry would be "very small" for individual homes. According to the federal governments press release, its favored model is "constructed on a comparable premise to the overseas wind agreements for difference (CfDs)", which substantially cut expenses of new offshore wind farms. Now that its method has actually been published, the government says it will gather proof from assessments on its low-carbon hydrogen requirement, net-zero hydrogen fund and the organization design:. As it stands, low-carbon hydrogen remains pricey compared to nonrenewable fuel source alternatives, there is unpredictability about the level of future demand and high threats for business aiming to get in the sector. The brand-new hydrogen strategy verifies that this service design will be finalised in 2022, enabling the first agreements to be allocated from the start of 2023. This is pending another assessment, which has been released along with the primary method.