In-depth Q&A: How will the UK’s hydrogen strategy help achieve net-zero?

In this post, Carbon Brief highlights bottom lines from the 121-page method and examines a few of the primary talking points around the UKs hydrogen plans.

Specialists have actually warned that, with hydrogen in brief supply in the coming years, the UK should prioritise it in “hard-to-electrify” sectors such as heavy market as capability expands.

Hydrogen will be “important” for achieving the UKs net-zero target and could satisfy up to a third of the nations energy needs by 2050, according to the federal government.

Meanwhile, company decisions around the extent of hydrogen use in domestic heating and how to ensure it is produced in a low-carbon way have been delayed or put out to assessment for the time being.

The UKs brand-new, long-awaited hydrogen strategy provides more detail on how the federal government will support the development of a domestic low-carbon hydrogen sector, which today is essentially non-existent.

Why does the UK need a hydrogen technique?

Hydrogen growth for the next years is expected to start gradually, with a federal government aspiration to “see 1GW production capacity by 2025” laid out in the technique.

Business such as Equinor are continuing with hydrogen developments in the UK, but industry figures have actually warned that the UK dangers being left behind. Other European nations have pledged billions to support low-carbon hydrogen expansion.

In some applications, hydrogen will take on electrification and carbon capture and storage (CCS) as the very best methods of decarbonisation.

However, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has actually noted that, in order to hit the UKs carbon spending plans and achieve net-zero emissions, choices in locations such as decarbonising heating and automobiles need to be made in the 2020s to enable time for infrastructure and automobile stock modifications.

The document includes an exploration of how the UK will expand production and develop a market for hydrogen based on domestic supply chains. This contrasts with Germany, which has been wanting to import hydrogen from abroad.

The plan also required a ₤ 240m net-zero hydrogen fund, the development of a hydrogen area warmed with the gas by 2023, and increasing hydrogen mixing into gas networks to 20% to lower reliance on natural gas.

As the chart below shows, if the federal governments plans come to fulfillment it might then broaden considerably– making up between 20-35% of the countrys overall energy supply by 2050. This will require a major expansion of infrastructure and abilities in the UK.

A recent All Party Parliamentary Group report on the role of hydrogen in powering market included a list of needs, stating that the federal government needs to “expand beyond its existing commitments of 5GW production in the forthcoming hydrogen strategy”. This call has been echoed by some industry groups.

Nevertheless, as with most of the governments net-zero strategy documents so far, the hydrogen strategy has actually been delayed by months, leading to unpredictability around the future of this fledgling industry.

The level of hydrogen usage in 2050 envisaged by the method is somewhat greater than set out by the CCC in its latest recommendations, however covers a comparable range to other research studies.

Its flexibility means it can be used to take on emissions in “hard-to-abate” sectors, such as heavy market, but it currently struggles with high prices and low efficiency..

Prior to the new method, the prime ministers 10-point plan in November 2020 consisted of strategies to produce five gigawatts (GW) of annual low-carbon hydrogen production capacity in the UK by 2030. Currently, this capacity stands at virtually zero.

Today we have published the UKs first Hydrogen Strategy! This is our strategy to: kick-start a whole industry unleash the marketplace to cut expenses ramp up domestic production unlock ₤ 4bn of private capital support 9k tasks #BuildBackGreenerhttps:// t.co/ aHZTr5yYeR– Kwasi Kwarteng (@KwasiKwarteng) August 17, 2021.

There were also over 100 recommendations to hydrogen throughout the governments energy white paper, showing its potential usage in numerous sectors. It likewise features in the commercial and transport decarbonisation techniques released previously this year.

Hydrogen is commonly seen as a crucial part in strategies to accomplish net-zero emissions and has actually been the topic of significant hype, with numerous nations prioritising it in their post-Covid green recovery strategies.

The strategy does not increase this target, although it keeps in mind that the government is “familiar with a prospective pipeline of over 15GW of jobs”.

Critics likewise characterise hydrogen– many of which is currently made from natural gas– as a way for fossil fuel companies to keep the status quo. (For all the advantages and disadvantages of hydrogen, see Carbon Briefs extensive explainer.).

In its brand-new technique, the UK federal government makes it clear that it sees low-carbon hydrogen as a key part of its net-zero plan, and says it desires the country to be a “worldwide leader on hydrogen” by 2030.

Hydrogen demand (pink location) and proportion of final energy intake in 2050 (%). The central variety is based on illustrative net-zero consistent circumstances in the 6th carbon budget impact evaluation and the full range is based on the entire range from hydrogen method analytical annex. Source: UK hydrogen method.

What range of low-carbon hydrogen will be prioritised?

CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be revealed in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent, or CO2eq. For an offered quantity, different greenhouse gases trap various quantities of heat in the atmosphere, an amount known as the international warming capacity. Carbon dioxide equivalent is a method of comparing emissions from all greenhouse gases, not simply co2.

The chart below, from a file laying out hydrogen costs released alongside the primary technique, reveals the anticipated declining expense of electrolytic hydrogen gradually (green lines). (This consists of hydrogen used grid electricity, which is not technically green unless the grid is 100% renewable.).

The CCC has actually formerly specified “appropriate emissions decreases” for blue hydrogen compared to fossil gas as “a minimum of 95% CO2 capture, 85% lifecycle greenhouse gas cost savings”.

As it stands, blue hydrogen made using steam methane reformation (SMR) is the most inexpensive low-carbon hydrogen available, according to government analysis included in the technique. (For more on the relative costs of various hydrogen varieties, see this Carbon Brief explainer.).

The CCC has cautioned that policies should establish both green and blue choices, “instead of simply whichever is least-cost”.

This opposition came to a head when a recent research study led to headlines stating that blue hydrogen is “worse for the environment than coal”.

In May, S&P Global Platts reported that Rita Wadey– hydrogen economy deputy director at the Department for Business, Energy & & Industrial Strategy (BEIS)– stated that, rather than “blue” or “green”, the UK would “consider carbon intensity as the primary factor in market development”.

The plan notes that, sometimes, hydrogen used electrolysers “could become cost-competitive with CCUS [carbon storage, utilisation and capture] -allowed methane reformation as early as 2025”..

The previous is basically zero-carbon, however the latter can still result in emissions due to methane leaks from natural gas facilities and the truth that carbon capture and storage (CCS) does not record 100% of emissions..

The new method mainly prevents utilizing this colour-coding system, but it states the government has actually dedicated to a “twin track” approach that will include the production of both varieties.

The method mentions that the proportion of hydrogen provided by particular technologies “depends upon a variety of assumptions, which can just be checked through the markets response to the policies set out in this technique and genuine, at-scale deployment of hydrogen”..

In the example selected for the assessment, natural gas routes where CO2 capture rates are below around 85% were left out..

There was considerable pushback on this conclusion, with other scientists– consisting of CCC head of carbon budgets, David Joffe– pointing out that it relied on extremely high methane leak and a short-term measure of global warming capacity that emphasised the effect of methane emissions over CO2.

It has likewise launched an accompanying report, prepared by consultancies E4Tech and Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (LBST), which takes a look at optimum appropriate levels of emissions for low-carbon hydrogen production and the methodology for determining these emissions.

Many researchers and environmental groups are sceptical about blue hydrogen offered its associated emissions.

The document does not do that and instead says it will offer “more information on our production technique and twin track approach by early 2022”.

The government has actually released a consultation on low-carbon hydrogen standards to accompany the strategy, with a pledge to “settle design elements” of such requirements by early 2022.

Green hydrogen is used electrolysers powered by eco-friendly electricity, while blue hydrogen is made utilizing gas, with the resulting emissions captured and saved..

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CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be revealed in regards to co2 equivalent, or CO2eq. For a provided quantity, different greenhouse gases trap various amounts of heat in the atmosphere, an amount referred to as … Read More.

Glossary.

Brief (ideally) reflecting on this blue hydrogen thing. Essentially, the papers estimations possibly represent a case where blue H ₂ is done actually severely & & with no sensible regulations. And after that cherry-picked a climate metric to make it look as bad as possible. https://t.co/Jx0FdDfdx5— David Joffe (@david_joffe) August 13, 2021.

Comparison of price quotes throughout various innovation types at central fuel prices commissioning from 2020 to 2050, ₤/ MWh hydrogen. Source: Hydrogen Production Costs.
2021.

The CCC has actually formerly stated that the government should “set out [a] vision for contributions of hydrogen production from various routes to 2035” in its hydrogen technique.

Prof Robert Gross, director of the UK Energy Research Centre, tells Carbon Brief that, in his view, it is “most likely a bit unhelpful to get too preoccupied with the blue vs green hydrogen dispute”. He says:.

” If we wish to demonstrate, trial, start to commercialise and after that roll out using hydrogen in industry/air travel/freight or anywhere, then we require enough hydrogen. We cant wait up until the supply side considerations are complete.”.

For its part, the CCC has advised a “blue hydrogen bridge” as an useful tool for accomplishing net-zero. It states allowing some blue hydrogen will reduce emissions faster in the short-term by changing more nonrenewable fuel sources with hydrogen when there is inadequate green hydrogen readily available..

Supporting a variety of jobs will offer the UK a “competitive advantage”, according to the government. Germany, by contrast, has stated it will focus specifically on green hydrogen.

At the heart of lots of discussions about low-carbon hydrogen production is whether the hydrogen is “green” or “blue”.

Jess Ralston, an analyst at thinktank the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said in a declaration that the government should “be alive to the danger of gas market lobbying causing it to dedicate too greatly to blue hydrogen and so keeping the nation locked into fossil fuel-based innovation”.

The figure listed below from the assessment, based upon this analysis, shows the impact of setting a limit of 15-20gCO2e per megajoule (MJ) of hydrogen (red bar). In this example, those production techniques above the red line, consisting of some for producing blue hydrogen, would be left out.

How will hydrogen be utilized in various sectors of the economy?

The strategy likewise consists of the choice of utilizing hydrogen in sectors that may be much better served by electrification, particularly domestic heating, where hydrogen has to compete with electric heat pumps..

In the actual report, the government stated that it expected “overall the need for low carbon hydrogen for heating by 2030 to be reasonably low (<< 1TWh)".. Reacting to the report, energy scientists indicated the "little" volumes of hydrogen anticipated to be produced in the near future and urged the federal government to select its concerns thoroughly. Some applications, such as industrial heating, may be essentially impossible without a supply of hydrogen, and many specialists have actually argued that these are the cases where it need to be prioritised, a minimum of in the brief term. The committee stresses that hydrogen usage should be limited to "areas less suited to electrification, particularly shipping and parts of industry" and supplying flexibility to the power system. Illustrative hydrogen need in 2030 (blue) and 2035 (purple). Source: UK hydrogen method. The CCC does not see substantial use of hydrogen outside of these restricted cases by 2035, as the chart below programs. Require proof on "hydrogen-ready" commercial equipment by the end of 2021. Call for proof on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in industry "within a year". Phase 2 of the ₤ 315m Industrial Energy Transformation Fund.A ₤ 55 million Industrial Fuel Switching 2 competitors in 2021. Low-carbon hydrogen can be utilized to do whatever from fuelling cars to heating houses, the reality is that it will likely be restricted by the volume that can probably be produced. Juliet Phillips, senior policy advisor and UK hydrogen expert at thinktank E3G tells Carbon Brief the technique had actually "exposed" the door for usages that "do not add the most value for the climate or economy". She includes:. " Stronger signals of intent might steer personal and public investments into those areas which include most worth. The federal government has actually not clearly set out how to decide upon which sectors will benefit from the preliminary organized 5GW of production and has instead mostly left this to be determined through trials and pilots.". Michael Liebrich of Liebreich Associates has actually organised the use of low-carbon hydrogen into a "ladder", with existing applications-- such as the chemicals industry-- offered top concern. This is in line with the CCCs recommendation for its net-zero path, which sees low-carbon hydrogen scaling up to 90TWh by 2035-- around a third of the size of the current power sector. Coverage of the report and federal government promotional products stressed that the federal governments plan would provide adequate hydrogen to replace natural gas in around 3m homes each year. The government is more positive about using hydrogen in domestic heating. Its analysis suggests that up to 45TWh of low-carbon hydrogen could be put to this use by 2035, as the chart listed below indicates. " As the method confesses, there wont be considerable quantities of low-carbon hydrogen for some time. [For that reason] we require to utilize it where there are couple of alternatives and not as a like-for-like replacement of gas," Dr Jan Rosenow, director of European programmes at the Regulatory Assistance Project, in a declaration. So, my lovelies, I just dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! For anyone new to all this, the ladder is my attempt to put use cases for tidy hydrogen into some sort of merit order, because not all use cases are similarly likely to be successful. 1/10 pic.twitter.com/I8HpqQjlKS— Michael Liebreich (@MLiebreich) August 15, 2021. One significant exclusion is hydrogen for fuel-cell automobile. This is consistent with the governments focus on electrical automobiles, which many scientists consider as more efficient and affordable innovation. Commitments made in the new strategy include:. The new strategy is clear that market will be a "lead option" for early hydrogen usage, beginning in the mid-2020s. It also says that it will "likely" be essential for decarbonising transportation-- especially heavy goods cars, shipping and air travel-- and stabilizing a more renewables-heavy grid. The beginning point for the range-- 0TWh-- suggests there is substantial unpredictability compared to other sectors, and even the highest quote is just around a 10th of the energy currently used to heat UK houses. Federal government analysis, consisted of in the strategy, suggests prospective hydrogen need of as much as 38 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, not including mixing it into the gas grid, and rising to 55-165TWh by 2035. It contains prepare for hydrogen heating trials and consultation on "hydrogen-ready" boilers by 2026. 4) On page 62 the hydrogen technique states that the government expects << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. 1 TWh is 0.2%. In order to develop a market for hydrogen, the government states it will analyze mixing up to 20% hydrogen into the gas network by late 2022 and goal to make a last decision in late 2023. " I would suggest to choose these no-regret options for hydrogen need [in industry] that are currently available ... those should be the focus.". Gniewomir Flis, a job supervisor at Agora Energiewende, informs Carbon Brief that-- in his view-- mixing "has no future". He explains:. Much will depend upon the development of feasibility studies in the coming years, and the governments approaching heat and buildings technique may likewise offer some clarity. How does the government strategy to support the hydrogen market? The brand-new hydrogen strategy validates that this company model will be settled in 2022, allowing the very first contracts to be designated from the start of 2023. This is pending another consultation, which has actually been introduced together with the primary strategy. Now that its method has been released, the federal government states it will gather evidence from consultations on its low-carbon hydrogen standard, net-zero hydrogen fund and the organization model:. Sharelines from this story. Much of the resulting press protection of the hydrogen method, from the Financial Times to the Daily Telegraph, focused on the plan for a hydrogen industry "subsidised by taxpayers", as the cash would come from either greater costs or public funds. The 10-point plan consisted of a promise to establish a hydrogen company model to encourage private financial investment and an income system to supply financing for business model. " This will offer us a much better understanding of the mix of production innovations, how we will fulfill a ramp-up in demand, and the function that new technologies could play in accomplishing the levels of production needed to fulfill our future [sixth carbon spending plan] and net-zero commitments.". Anne-Marie Trevelyan-- minister for energy, clean growth and environment modification at BEIS-- informed the Times that the expense to offer long-lasting security to the industry would be "very little" for specific households. Hydrogen need (pink location) and percentage of last energy usage in 2050 (%). My lovelies, I simply dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! Call for proof on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in industry "within a year"." As the strategy admits, there wont be significant amounts of low-carbon hydrogen for some time. 4) On page 62 the hydrogen method states that the government expects << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. According to the governments press release, its preferred design is "built on a similar facility to the overseas wind contracts for distinction (CfDs)", which significantly cut expenses of brand-new overseas wind farms. As it stands, low-carbon hydrogen remains expensive compared to fossil fuel options, there is unpredictability about the level of future demand and high threats for companies intending to enter the sector. These contracts are created to conquer the expense space between the preferred technology and fossil fuels. Hydrogen producers would be offered a payment that bridges this gap.