In-depth Q&A: How will the UK’s hydrogen strategy help achieve net-zero?

Professionals have actually alerted that, with hydrogen in short supply in the coming years, the UK should prioritise it in “hard-to-electrify” sectors such as heavy industry as capacity expands.

In this post, Carbon Brief highlights bottom lines from the 121-page technique and examines a few of the main talking points around the UKs hydrogen plans.

On the other hand, company decisions around the level of hydrogen use in domestic heating and how to guarantee it is produced in a low-carbon way have actually been postponed or put out to assessment for the time being.

The UKs new, long-awaited hydrogen strategy offers more detail on how the federal government will support the advancement of a domestic low-carbon hydrogen sector, which today is practically non-existent.

Hydrogen will be “crucial” for attaining the UKs net-zero target and might satisfy up to a 3rd of the countrys energy requirements by 2050, according to the federal government.

Why does the UK need a hydrogen technique?

As with most of the federal governments net-zero method documents so far, the hydrogen plan has been delayed by months, resulting in uncertainty around the future of this new market.

Hydrogen demand (pink location) and proportion of final energy consumption in 2050 (%). The central variety is based upon illustrative net-zero constant circumstances in the sixth carbon budget impact evaluation and the complete variety is based upon the entire variety from hydrogen strategy analytical annex. Source: UK hydrogen technique.

The plan likewise required a ₤ 240m net-zero hydrogen fund, the creation of a hydrogen neighbourhood warmed with the gas by 2023, and increasing hydrogen mixing into gas networks to 20% to minimize dependence on gas.

The level of hydrogen use in 2050 envisaged by the technique is somewhat greater than set out by the CCC in its most recent advice, but covers a comparable variety to other research studies.

In some applications, hydrogen will complete with electrification and carbon capture and storage (CCS) as the best ways of decarbonisation.

Companies such as Equinor are continuing with hydrogen advancements in the UK, but industry figures have actually warned that the UK dangers being left. Other European nations have actually promised billions to support low-carbon hydrogen expansion.

Critics also characterise hydrogen– many of which is currently made from natural gas– as a method for fossil fuel companies to preserve the status quo. (For all the advantages and disadvantages of hydrogen, see Carbon Briefs extensive explainer.).

In its brand-new strategy, the UK federal government makes it clear that it sees low-carbon hydrogen as a crucial part of its net-zero strategy, and states it desires the country to be a “international leader on hydrogen” by 2030.

Hydrogen is widely viewed as an important element in plans to accomplish net-zero emissions and has actually been the subject of significant buzz, with many countries prioritising it in their post-Covid green recovery strategies.

Today we have published the UKs first Hydrogen Strategy! This is our strategy to: kick-start a whole industry let loose the market to cut costs increase domestic production unlock ₤ 4bn of personal capital assistance 9k jobs #BuildBackGreenerhttps:// t.co/ aHZTr5yYeR– Kwasi Kwarteng (@KwasiKwarteng) August 17, 2021.

As the chart below programs, if the governments strategies come to fulfillment it could then broaden significantly– making up in between 20-35% of the nations total energy supply by 2050. This will require a significant growth of facilities and abilities in the UK.

A current All Party Parliamentary Group report on the function of hydrogen in powering market included a list of demands, mentioning that the federal government should “expand beyond its existing commitments of 5GW production in the upcoming hydrogen strategy”. This call has actually been echoed by some market groups.

Prior to the new technique, the prime ministers 10-point plan in November 2020 included plans to produce five gigawatts (GW) of yearly low-carbon hydrogen production capacity in the UK by 2030. Presently, this capability stands at essentially no.

There were also over 100 referrals to hydrogen throughout the governments energy white paper, reflecting its possible use in numerous sectors. It likewise includes in the commercial and transportation decarbonisation strategies released earlier this year.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has actually noted that, in order to hit the UKs carbon budget plans and accomplish net-zero emissions, choices in areas such as decarbonising heating and lorries need to be made in the 2020s to permit time for infrastructure and automobile stock modifications.

Hydrogen growth for the next years is expected to begin gradually, with a federal government goal to “see 1GW production capacity by 2025” set out in the strategy.

The technique does not increase this target, although it keeps in mind that the government is “familiar with a potential pipeline of over 15GW of tasks”.

Its versatility suggests it can be used to tackle emissions in “hard-to-abate” sectors, such as heavy industry, but it currently struggles with high prices and low effectiveness..

The file consists of an expedition of how the UK will broaden production and produce a market for hydrogen based upon domestic supply chains. This contrasts with Germany, which has been wanting to import hydrogen from abroad.

What range of low-carbon hydrogen will be prioritised?

Contrast of rate quotes throughout different technology types at main fuel prices commissioning from 2020 to 2050, ₤/ MWh hydrogen. Source: Hydrogen Production Costs.
2021.

The file does refrain from doing that and instead says it will supply “further information on our production technique and twin track technique by early 2022”.

The strategy states that the proportion of hydrogen provided by particular innovations “depends on a series of assumptions, which can only be checked through the markets reaction to the policies set out in this strategy and real, at-scale implementation of hydrogen”..

Supporting a variety of tasks will offer the UK a “competitive benefit”, according to the government. Germany, by contrast, has stated it will focus exclusively on green hydrogen.

Brief (hopefully) reflecting on this blue hydrogen thing. And then cherry-picked an environment metric to make it look as bad as possible.

In May, S&P Global Platts reported that Rita Wadey– hydrogen economy deputy director at the Department for Business, Energy & & Industrial Strategy (BEIS)– stated that, rather than “blue” or “green”, the UK would “consider carbon strength as the primary aspect in market advancement”.

At the heart of numerous conversations about low-carbon hydrogen production is whether the hydrogen is “green” or “blue”.

The federal government has actually launched a consultation on low-carbon hydrogen requirements to accompany the technique, with a pledge to “settle design components” of such requirements by early 2022.

The CCC has previously specified “suitable emissions decreases” for blue hydrogen compared to fossil gas as “at least 95% CO2 capture, 85% lifecycle greenhouse gas cost savings”.

The plan notes that, in some cases, hydrogen made using electrolysers “could end up being cost-competitive with CCUS [carbon capture, utilisation and storage] -allowed methane reformation as early as 2025”..

For its part, the CCC has advised a “blue hydrogen bridge” as an useful tool for achieving net-zero. It states permitting some blue hydrogen will reduce emissions faster in the short-term by changing more fossil fuels with hydrogen when there is insufficient green hydrogen offered..

Glossary.

In the example picked for the assessment, natural gas routes where CO2 capture rates are below around 85% were left out..

The chart below, from a file outlining hydrogen expenses launched alongside the main technique, reveals the anticipated decreasing expense of electrolytic hydrogen in time (green lines). (This consists of hydrogen used grid electrical power, which is not technically green unless the grid is 100% renewable.).

It has likewise launched an accompanying report, prepared by consultancies E4Tech and Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (LBST), which examines maximum appropriate levels of emissions for low-carbon hydrogen production and the methodology for determining these emissions.

Green hydrogen is made using electrolysers powered by sustainable electrical energy, while blue hydrogen is made using natural gas, with the resulting emissions recorded and saved..

The new method largely avoids using this colour-coding system, but it says the federal government has actually dedicated to a “twin track” technique that will consist of the production of both varieties.

The previous is basically zero-carbon, but the latter can still lead to emissions due to methane leakages from natural gas infrastructure and the fact that carbon capture and storage (CCS) does not capture 100% of emissions..

However, there was significant pushback on this conclusion, with other scientists– including CCC head of carbon budget plans, David Joffe– explaining that it counted on really high methane leak and a short-term measure of worldwide warming capacity that emphasised the impact of methane emissions over CO2.

The CCC has actually alerted that policies need to establish both green and blue choices, “rather than simply whichever is least-cost”.

The CCC has formerly mentioned that the government should “set out [a] vision for contributions of hydrogen production from different paths to 2035″ in its hydrogen technique.

” If we wish to show, trial, start to commercialise and after that present making use of hydrogen in industry/air travel/freight or anywhere, then we need enough hydrogen. We cant wait till the supply side deliberations are complete.”.

Jess Ralston, an expert at thinktank the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), stated in a statement that the federal government ought to “be alive to the threat of gas market lobbying causing it to devote too heavily to blue hydrogen and so keeping the nation locked into fossil fuel-based technology”.

As it stands, blue hydrogen made utilizing steam methane reformation (SMR) is the cheapest low-carbon hydrogen readily available, according to government analysis included in the technique. (For more on the relative costs of various hydrogen varieties, see this Carbon Brief explainer.).

Close.
CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be expressed in regards to co2 equivalent, or CO2eq. For an offered quantity, different greenhouse gases trap various amounts of heat in the environment, an amount referred to as … Read More.

The figure below from the assessment, based upon this analysis, reveals the effect of setting a threshold of 15-20gCO2e per megajoule (MJ) of hydrogen (red bar). In this example, those production methods above the red line, consisting of some for producing blue hydrogen, would be excluded.

Prof Robert Gross, director of the UK Energy Research Centre, informs Carbon Brief that, in his view, it is “most likely a bit unhelpful to get too preoccupied with the blue vs green hydrogen argument”. He states:.

Many researchers and ecological groups are sceptical about blue hydrogen offered its associated emissions.

This opposition capped when a current research study resulted in headings specifying that blue hydrogen is “worse for the climate than coal”.

CO2 equivalent: Greenhouse gases can be revealed in terms of co2 equivalent, or CO2eq. For a given amount, different greenhouse gases trap various quantities of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity called the international warming potential. Co2 equivalent is a way of comparing emissions from all greenhouse gases, not just co2.

How will hydrogen be utilized in various sectors of the economy?

Coverage of the report and government advertising products emphasised that the governments plan would provide adequate hydrogen to replace gas in around 3m homes each year.

Commitments made in the brand-new strategy consist of:.

It includes strategies for hydrogen heating trials and assessment on “hydrogen-ready” boilers by 2026.

Although low-carbon hydrogen can be used to do whatever from fuelling cars and trucks to heating homes, the truth is that it will likely be restricted by the volume that can feasibly be produced.

” As the strategy confesses, there wont be significant quantities of low-carbon hydrogen for a long time. [For that reason] we need to utilize it where there are couple of options and not as a like-for-like replacement of gas,” Dr Jan Rosenow, director of European programs at the Regulatory Assistance Project, in a declaration.

Nevertheless, the technique also consists of the option of using hydrogen in sectors that may be much better served by electrification, especially domestic heating, where hydrogen needs to contend with electrical heat pumps..

The CCC does not see extensive usage of hydrogen outside of these limited cases by 2035, as the chart below programs.

The new technique is clear that market will be a “lead alternative” for early hydrogen usage, beginning in the mid-2020s. It likewise states that it will “likely” be necessary for decarbonising transport– particularly heavy items vehicles, shipping and aviation– and stabilizing a more renewables-heavy grid.

The federal government is more optimistic about making use of hydrogen in domestic heating. Its analysis suggests that as much as 45TWh of low-carbon hydrogen could be put to this use by 2035, as the chart listed below indicates.

The committee stresses that hydrogen usage ought to be restricted to “areas less matched to electrification, especially shipping and parts of industry” and offering versatility to the power system.

Some applications, such as commercial heating, may be virtually difficult without a supply of hydrogen, and lots of experts have argued that these are the cases where it need to be prioritised, at least in the short-term.

My lovelies, I simply dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! For anybody brand-new to all this, the ladder is my attempt to put usage cases for clean hydrogen into some sort of merit order, since not all usage cases are equally most likely to prosper. 1/10 pic.twitter.com/I8HpqQjlKS— Michael Liebreich (@MLiebreich) August 15, 2021.

Require evidence on “hydrogen-ready” industrial equipment by the end of 2021. Require proof on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in market “within a year”. Phase 2 of the ₤ 315m Industrial Energy Transformation Fund.A ₤ 55 million Industrial Fuel Switching 2 competitors in 2021.

Illustrative hydrogen demand in 2030 (blue) and 2035 (purple). Source: UK hydrogen technique.

Nevertheless, the starting point for the variety– 0TWh– recommends there is substantial uncertainty compared to other sectors, and even the greatest price quote is only around a 10th of the energy currently utilized to heat UK homes.

Responding to the report, energy researchers pointed to the “small” volumes of hydrogen expected to be produced in the future and advised the federal government to choose its priorities carefully.

” Stronger signals of intent might guide personal and public financial investments into those locations which include most value. The federal government has actually not clearly set out how to choose upon which sectors will gain from the initial scheduled 5GW of production and has rather mostly left this to be determined through trials and pilots.”.

This is in line with the CCCs recommendation for its net-zero pathway, which sees low-carbon hydrogen scaling approximately 90TWh by 2035– around a 3rd of the size of the existing power sector.

Michael Liebrich of Liebreich Associates has actually organised making use of low-carbon hydrogen into a “ladder”, with current applications– such as the chemicals market– provided leading priority.

Juliet Phillips, senior policy consultant and UK hydrogen professional at thinktank E3G tells Carbon Brief the strategy had “left open” the door for usages that “dont include the most value for the climate or economy”. She includes:.

Federal government analysis, consisted of in the strategy, suggests potential hydrogen demand of up to 38 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, not consisting of mixing it into the gas grid, and increasing to 55-165TWh by 2035.

One significant exemption is hydrogen for fuel-cell traveler cars. This is constant with the federal governments concentrate on electrical vehicles, which lots of scientists view as more effective and economical technology.

In the real report, the government stated that it anticipated “in general the demand for low carbon hydrogen for heating by 2030 to be reasonably low (<< 1TWh)".. 4) On page 62 the hydrogen technique specifies that the government anticipates << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. Current energy need in the UK for space and warm water heating is 435 TWh according to Ofgem. So 1 TWh is 0.2%. Thats about 67,000 homes.-- Jan Rosenow (@janrosenow) August 17, 2021. Gniewomir Flis, a job supervisor at Agora Energiewende, informs Carbon Brief that-- in his view-- blending "has no future". He explains:. Much will depend upon the development of expediency studies in the coming years, and the governments upcoming heat and buildings method may likewise offer some clarity. Lastly, in order to create a market for hydrogen, the federal government states it will take a look at blending as much as 20% hydrogen into the gas network by late 2022 and aim to make a final choice in late 2023. " I would recommend to opt for these no-regret options for hydrogen need [in industry] that are already available ... those ought to be the focus.". How does the federal government strategy to support the hydrogen industry? The 10-point strategy consisted of a pledge to develop a hydrogen service model to motivate private investment and an earnings mechanism to offer financing for business model. Hydrogen need (pink location) and percentage of last energy consumption in 2050 (%). My lovelies, I just dropped Version 4 of the Clean Hydrogen Ladder! Call for evidence on phaseout of carbon-intensive hydrogen production in market "within a year"." As the method admits, there will not be considerable amounts of low-carbon hydrogen for some time. 4) On page 62 the hydrogen technique mentions that the federal government anticipates << 1 TWh of energy for heating to come from hydrogen by 2030. Sharelines from this story. As it stands, low-carbon hydrogen stays pricey compared to fossil fuel alternatives, there is uncertainty about the level of future demand and high risks for business aiming to go into the sector. Anne-Marie Trevelyan-- minister for energy, tidy development and climate change at BEIS-- told the Times that the expense to supply long-term security to the market would be "extremely small" for specific households. " This will provide us a much better understanding of the mix of production technologies, how we will meet a ramp-up in need, and the function that brand-new innovations might play in achieving the levels of production needed to meet our future [sixth carbon budget] and net-zero commitments.". Now that its method has been released, the federal government says it will gather proof from assessments on its low-carbon hydrogen requirement, net-zero hydrogen fund and business model:. These agreements are developed to get rid of the cost space between the favored technology and fossil fuels. Hydrogen producers would be provided a payment that bridges this space. According to the federal governments news release, its favored model is "built on a comparable premise to the offshore wind agreements for distinction (CfDs)", which considerably cut expenses of brand-new offshore wind farms. Much of the resulting press coverage of the hydrogen technique, from the Financial Times to the Daily Telegraph, focused on the strategy for a hydrogen market "subsidised by taxpayers", as the cash would come from either greater bills or public funds. The brand-new hydrogen technique confirms that this organization design will be finalised in 2022, making it possible for the first agreements to be allocated from the start of 2023. This is pending another consultation, which has been introduced along with the primary strategy.